1. The climate change issue
There is a lot of information out there to explain this "climate change issue" to you. I don't propose to get into any real detail but hopefully I can point you in the right direction to find out more.
A quick word first though to any sceptics that are reading this. I have heard a lot of people argue that there is still doubt from some scientists that climate change is really happening. If you believe this, I am afraid that you are wrong. In the past (maybe 15 to 20+ years ago?), you might have had a point; and this is important to consider as you find out about the issue. Don't be persuaded by old media/scientific articles. Also, be cautious about some sceptical media reports: the media like to sensationalise and they also like demonstrating conflicting views...even if they have to make them up!
What is this issue?
In very basic terms: weather patterns are changing (i.e. the climate is changing) because of our (i.e. the human race's) activities, like burning oil for energy. To really understand this, I advise you look into the following:
- The documentary film "An inconvenient truth" is outstanding. Whether you know a lot about climate change or you are not sure what it is all about, this film is brilliant. There is nothing I could do to try and explain it better and I can see why Al Gore has been given a Nobel Peace Prize for it. The web address is www.climatecrisis.net: buy it or borrow it from a library - and pass it around your friends.
- Check out: the Frequently Asked Questions at the IPCC's website (more on them to follow); Earthguide's simple annotation that explains how the greenhouse effect happens, and why increasing carbon dioxide concentration will lead to a warming of the earth; or Wikipedia, which has a lot of detail.
- Alternatively, you can read my very brief explanation of the process here
Who cares?
Well the core group of people that are looking into the climate change problem are the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). You can see their latest findings at the IPCC website. Their Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) has been published during 2007. This is the consensus of all of the world's leading climate scientists. Its findings are quite scary, especially how much change has accelerated more than they predicted in the previous report (the Third Assessment Report [TAR], which was published in 2001). However, they do make clear that we can make a difference ('mitigate' the problem) if we act now. There is a huge amount of information on their website but is easy to read. Start out reading the Summary for Policymakers documents.
...And who believes in the IPCC? Well they received a Nobel Peace Prize this year, which is a pretty good accolade. You will also find that every political leader in the world believes that it is happening. Some of them may be paying lip service to the issue but they know it is important. Probably the key thing that clinched it was an economic paper: Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change. The conclusions of this paper were that climate change will cost between 5% and 20% of global GDP, each year (now and forever), if we don't do anything about it. This compares to a cost of 1% of global GDP to do something about it if we start now. There is nothing quite like hitting politicians in the wallet to persuade them to do something!
What is going to happen?
The IPCC reports contain a lot of detail about the likely effects of the climate changes that we are causing. They deal carefully with probabilities and confidence so you can see, for example, that "increased insect outbreaks" are virtually certain, and there is "very likely to be an increase in the frequency of hot extremes, heat waves and heavy precipitation". These likelihoods all have meaning, depending on how well they can model and understand them.
There are plenty of other books/websites/reports, which also talk about the effects of climate change, which will include:
- Floods, and associated soil erosion;
- Droughts, hence crop failures;
- Sea level rise, causing, for example, islands like the Maldives and substantial parts of mega-deltas (like Bangladesh) to disappear below the waves;
- Melting of the Artic icecap, and of glaciers...it is a bad time to think about taking up skiing;
- Heat waves;
- Loss of the coral reefs;
- Loss of species;
- Diseases and plagues;
- Displacement of people, refugees;
Essentially, the world will be a more difficult place to live and a less beautiful place to enjoy!